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重磅！今晚美国公布8月通胀报告，预计8.5%降至8%，延续降温趋势_预期_物价_我的网站
一 | SACRAMENTO, Calif. -- California officials on Thursday faulted communities in a stretch of the crop-rich San Joaquin Valley for failing to develop a plan to adequately protect groundwater in the often drought-plagued state.The state's water resources board set an April hearing to determine whether the Tulare Lake Subbasin in the heart of California's farm country should be placed on probation. It is the first time the state has made such a move, and the first step in a lengthy process that could end up requiring large farms in the area to report groundwater use and pay fees.California is starting to regulate the pumping of groundwater after years of drought and overpumping left rural residents’ wells dry and led to subsidence, or the sinking of land, in some communities. Both issues have affected the largely agricultural region, which is home to 145,000 people, and stand to worsen absent revisions to the local groundwater plan, officials said.“This is an urgent issue,” said Natalie Stork, an official at the State Water Resources Control Board. “There are urgent impacts from continued overdraft in these basins.”The state enacted a 2014 law tasking communities with forming groundwater agencies and making plans to manage the resource sustainably, starting with the most critically overdrafted basins, including the Tulare Lake Subbasin.Five groundwater agencies joined together come up with a plan for the subbasin where farmers grow cotton, almonds and pistachios. But the plan was one of six that California's Department of Water Resources deemed inadequate this year.Now, the State Water Resources Control Board will hold a hearing April 16 to decide whether to place the Tulare Lake Subbasin on probation. If it does, large pumpers would report their groundwater usage and pay fees while the local agencies draft a new plan for the basin. If they don't, the board could eventually implement its own plan.Many communities rely mainly or solely on groundwater for drinking water and farmers count on it for irrigation, especially in a drought. California muddled through a spell of dry years until a series of winter storms drenched the state and dumped massive amounts of snow in the mountains. When the snow melted, it flowed down to form the reemerging Tulare Lake, which covered vast stretches of farmland with water. California has long tended toward wet and dry periods, but scientists at University of California, San Diego’s Scripps Institution of Oceanography have said they expect climate change will lead to drier dry years and wetter wet years.。
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三 | 但除此之外，美联储将密切关注食品价格的波动，以寻找潜在通胀正在缓解的迹象，数据显示，一系列商品和服务价格仍远高于一年前的水平，如果这些关键领域物价压力不减，美联储不会轻易放缓加息。
四 | 但关注随着供应状况的改善传导至消费者，未来几个月食品价格可能会回落。美联储主席鲍威尔明确表示，在放缓或暂停加息之前，希望看到明确且有说服力的证据表明物价压力正在减弱。在上周的讲话中，这一点得到强调，表示“坚定地致力于”抗击通胀。不过即便连续放缓，当前说通胀已经过了峰值还为时尚早，特别是考虑冬季能源价格会因为需求再次被推升，作为影响通胀的关键组成部分，很容易将物价再次推向新高。而在通胀公布前，隔夜美股市场因最新通胀预期连续放缓而获得提振，纽约联储的月度消费者预期调查显示，8月消费者认为未来12个月的通胀率料为5.75%，为2021年10月以来最低。消费者还预计未来三年的平均物价增幅为2.8%，为2020年底以来最低。
五 | 美联储官员曾表示，控制通胀预期是确保通胀率在某个时候回落至2%目标的重要组成部分。
六 | 旧金山联邦储备银行上周发布的一份研究报告称，美国家庭对未来通胀路径的预期越来越多地影响工资要求。
七 | 美联储本月大概率加息75个基点，如果通胀连续放缓，但是放缓势头温和，将不足以改变美联储继续大幅加息的预期，所以今晚市场的波动视乎通胀最终结果和市场预期的出入，尤其是核心通胀的变化。如果通胀连续放缓，美债收益率预计跟随向下，美股向上寻求动力，继续刷新本月的高位。而美元昨晚已经先作调整，如果通胀降温超预期，美元可能进一步下探108，届时金价会获得更大动力延续反弹以1740美元上方为目标。
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